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您的当前位置是 》网上书店学术科研类书籍贸易商务经济
Boao Forum for Asia-Progress of Asian Economic Integration Annual Report 2018

【书名】:Boao Forum for Asia-Progress of Asian Economic Integration Annual Report 2018
【作者】:
【丛书名】:
【版次/印次】:1/1
【出版日期】:2018年3月
【ISBN】:9787566319067
【字数/页数】:173千字/
【开本/纸张】:215mm×278mm/
【适用层次】:
【定价】:180.00
【会员价】:162.00
【VIP价】:153.00
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  FOREWORD

  Aftertheoutbreakoftheglobalfinancialcrisisinthedevelopedcountriesin2008,Asiahasbeenundergoingaseriesofstructuralchangesinitstrade,investmentandfinanceandthesechangesarehavingprofoundimpactontheprogressofAsia’seconomicintegration.

  WeneedacautiousattitudetopredictthefutureprogressofAsia’seconomicintegrationeventhoughthereweresomegoodsignsforAsia’stradeperformancein2017.Theglobalizationbasedontheglobalvaluechaindevelopment,whichhasbeenthemostimportantdriverofAsia’seconomicintegration,isfacingunprecedentedchallengesfromtwosides.Theanti-globalizationsentimentthatoriginatedfromtheWestisstillspreadingovertheworld.Besidesthis,themarketforcesseemtobeatworktoreshapetheglobalvaluechain—thebasisoftheglobalization.Thenewinnovationsinprecisemachines,robots,3-Dtechnologiesandlowerresourcecostsmaybringsomemanufacturingcapacitiesbacktothedevelopedcountries.Inaddition,thereisalsoatendencyformultinationalcompaniestoshortentheglobalsupplychainsastheyinvolvehighrisksofinterruptions.Finally,anencouragingchangeinAsia’sglobalvaluechainisthatmostoftheAsianeconomiesincludingChina,India,Vietnam,IndonesiaandThailandhavesignificantlyincreasedthecapacitytosubstituteforimportsofintermediategoods,whichobviouslywouldcontributetothereductioninglobaltrade.Thechangeintheglobalvaluechainmaygeographicallyleadtorelocationsofinvestmentintheworldandreducethescaleofglobaltrade.ThisisthebackgroundagainstwhichAsia’seconomicintegrationisproceedingtoday.TheAsianmembersneednewpoliciestofacethesechallengescomingbothfromideologicalperspectiveandfromthemarketside.

  Sincetheglobalfinancialcrisis,manyofAsia’svulnerabilitiesemerged.Thenarrownessoftheinternalmarketsincreasinglybecomesabarriertotheexpansionoftheglobalvaluechain.TraditionalmodelofAsia’sglobalvaluechainis:ChinasourcedintermediatepartsandcomponentsfromtheAsianpartnersincludingJapan,KoreaandASEANandhadtheseP&CsassembledinChinabeforethefinalgoodswereexportedtotheUSandEU.WithdeterioratingeconomicgrowthandgrowingtradedeficitsintheUSandsomeEUmembers,thismodelisfacedwithmoredifficulties.ToexpandAsia’sinternalmarketsisverycrucialtosustainthefurthergrowthoftheglobalvaluechainandprovidenewmomentumtotheglobaltradegrowth.Formanyyears,majorAsianeconomieshaveexcesssavings.Buttheseexcesssavingshavenotbeeneffectivelymobilizedlocallyduetotheunderdevelopedfinancialmarkets.Insteadofbeingintermediatedinthelocalfinancialmarkets,theyweremainlyflowingtothedevelopedcountries.AsnotedinthisReport,theUnitedStatesandEUabsorbed96percentoftheworldtotalportfolioinvestmentin2016.ThispatternofcapitalflowswouldexposeAsianeconomiestohighrisksofcapitalflightandhighercostoffinancing.Theproblemhasbecomemoreprominentwithvolatileinternalandexternalenvironmentsinrecentyears.FirmsandindividualsintheAsianeconomieshaveusedthefinancialmarketsasavehiclefor“flighttosafety”.Withitsrapideconomicgrowth,Asiashouldhavestrongdemandforcapitalandthisrequiresanefficientlyintegratedfinancialmarkets.Somestudieshaveshownthatthelocaldemandwasveryhigh,particularlyfortheinfrastructureandtheconservativeestimatesputthedemandoverUSD8.3trillionbefore2020(Bhattacharyay2010).TheAsianeconomiesshouldsparenoeffortstotakeadvantageoftheopportunitytomovecollectivelytowardcreatingaworld-classintegratedlocalfinancialmarketthroughoutdeterminedreforms.However,whatisworryingusisthatvariousindicatorssuchaslocalsaving-investmentcorrelations,stockmarketcorrelationsandcapitalaccountcontrolssuggestthatAsiaisexperiencingfallbacksinfinancialintegrationrecently.Inadditiontothese,thereisalsoaproblemofwidediscrepancybetweenfinancialopennessmeasuredrestrictiverulesandtheactualflows.Forexample,byregulations,ASEANislessopenthanJapanandKorea.Butintermsofactualflows,ASEANappearedtomoreopenthanthesetwocountries.

  Lookingahead,Asianeedstotackleanumberofchallengesinitswayforward.First,itshouldworkoutclearpoliciestodealwiththestructuralchangesofglobalvaluechainandfindnewandinnovativewaystogrow(asnotedinthethemeoftheforthcomingBoaoforAsiaAnnualmeetingin2018).Second,itshouldworkcollectivelytodevelopacommonapproachtoexternalpressuresbothinmacroeconomicsideandintradetoreversethetendencyof“flighttosafety”andresisttheprotectionistpressuresfromtheWesterndevelopedcountries.Third,itshouldsparenoeffortstodeepenthefinancialreformsofindividualeconomiesinacoordinatedmannersoastoreleasetheregion’spotentialsofgrowth.Whiletheultimategoalistocreateanefficientlyintegratedlocalfinancialmarket,itmayfocus,butnotlimited,onseveralshort-termgoalssuchaseliminatingtheexcesssavingstoboosttheregion’sdemand,makingcollectivesolutiontoeachindividualeconomy’spotentialfinancialrisks,coordinatingtheprogressofcapitalaccountreformsandpromotinglocalentrepreneurshiptoboostinvestment.Finally,itshouldactivelyengageinconflictmanagement.Securityissuessuchasnuclearweapons,territorialdisputesandfearofrisingpowersarebeginningtohaveimpactonAsia’seconomicdevelopmentandcooperation.Asiaeconomiesshouldfirstestablishastrongsenseofcommunityanddevelopskillsandguidelinestomanagethepotentialconflicts.Economiesshouldabandonthe“one-sided-win”mentalitiesanddeepentheunderstandingofandlisteningpatientlytotheconcernsoftheothersidethroughactivedialoguesandcommunications.Italsorequireseconomiestostandupagainstusingwarasmeanstoresolveconflicts.PeaceisthefundamentalbasisofAsia’sgreaterprosperityandtoensurepeace,theAsianeconomiesshouldusetheregion’seconomicintegrationasastabilizerandtheAsianleadersshouldworktogethertosteertheregioninthisdirection.

  

Table of Contents
  
ACRONYMS IX
FOREWORD XI
LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS XIII
Chapter 1 Recent Trend of Asia’s Trade and Investment 1
1.1 Trade of Asia in 2016 1
1.2 Asia’s Trade in Intermediate Goods: Persistence in Slowdown 7
1.3 FDI Inflows and Outflows in Asia 10
Chapter 2 Trade Interdependence among the Asian Economies 17
2.1  Measuring Asia’s Trade Integration 17
2.2  Trade Interdependence among Key Members: Past and Present 19
2.3  Trade Flows among Selected Asian Economies 22
2.4 Direction and Dependence of Intermediate Goods Trade in Asia 23
2.5  Basic Facts about Trade in Value Added in Asia 25
Chapter 3 Interdependence of Asian Economies in Factory Asia 31
3.1 Pattern of Interdependence Remained Stable 31
3.2 Product Dependence and Competitive Advantage in the Global Value Chain 33
3.3 Pattern of Competitive Advantages among Global Factories 36
Chapter 4  FDI Interdependence in Asia 43
4.1 FDI Self-dependence in Asia 43
4.2 Inward FDI Interdependence 44
4.3 Outward FDI Interdependence 46
Chapter 5  Integration in Asia’s Service Sector 49
5.1 Features of Services Content in Asia Trade 49
5.2 Asia Integration 54
Chapter 6  Financial Integration 59
6.1 Portfolio Investment in Asia: Fragile Recovery amid Continuing Uncertainty 59
6.2  De jure and de facto Financial Openness of Asia 61
6.3 Index of Business Cycle Synchronization 66
6.4  Asian Financial Market Integration: Saving and Investment Correlation Indices 68
6.5 Stock Market Correlation Index in Asia 70
6.6 Inflation Correlation Index in Asia 73
Outlook 77
Appendix Important Events of the Asian Economic Integration 79
REFERENCES 91
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 93
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